How Predictive Modelling Improves Marine Risk Management

The financial and reputational consequences of causing a maritime catastrophe get greater every year.  As a shipping company, you must therefore always look to improve your safety planning, procedures and record.

The greatest recent breakthrough in marine safety is predictive modelling. By using it, you can identify and avoid your greatest risks. And HiLo’s world-leading technology makes it easy.

What is marine risk management?

Marine risk management involves identifying, analyzing, and mitigating potential hazards during maritime operations. This ensures the safety of crew, cargo, and the environment.

Read more about maritime risk management in our blog.

How do you improve marine risk management?

• Find and resolve issues early: Using maritime predictive modelling can considerably improve the success of your marine risk management. HiLo tools can gather data to both anticipate issues likely to put your vessels in danger, and show how to prevent them.
• Identify risky locations:  HiLo’s Risk Hawk uses port-based safety observations (SIRE, CDI, PSC) to anticipate potential problems at specific ports.
• Improve crew collaboration: Ensure shore-side staff and crew members have the best communication technology for the safest marine risk management. Encourage open communication of safety concerns and near misses to identify potential problems before they escalate.
• Make safety your #1 priority: Leaders should focus and emphasize on safety, making a full commitment to improving marine risk management throughout the organization.
• Clear, consistent training and operations: Ensure crew are trained to identifiy, assess, and mitigate risks, through training and procedures that minimize the chance of human error.
• Develop a risk management plan (RMP), including procedures for identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring, improvement and review. Consider tools like HiLo’s Zenith to improve risk assessment.
• Continuously improve your marine risk management by monitoring and reviewing its effectiveness at sea. Learn from incidents and near misses and take steps to improve.

What is maritime predictive modelling? 

Maritime predictive modeling utilizes historical data, real-time information, and advanced algorithms to forecast various aspects of shipping operations, herefore,  improve marine risk management.

This can include: 

• Ship trajectory: Predicting a vessel’s future position considering currents, weather, and planned routes.
• Weather conditions: Forecasting wind, waves, and storms to optimize routes and avoid hazardous weather.
• Equipment failure: Analyzing sensor data to predict potential mechanical problems before they occur.
• Maritime accidents: Identifying areas with higher accident risks based on historical data and environmental factors.

What data sources are used for maritime predictive modelling?

The main difference between modern maritime predictive modelling and traditional safety management is the data available.

Traditional maritime safety data could only use a company’s individual incident reports. HiLo’s maritime predictive modelling utilises comprehensive datasets from more than 2,500 vessels for better risk predictions. We can look well beyond standard Incident Management Systems (IMS), by using:

1. Vetting/audit data, to find potential problems during inspections (SIRE, PSC), spotting trends and therefore areas needing improvement
2. Defect/maintenance data: for ‘leading indicators’ like equipment leaks, which may initially appear  to do little damage, but have the biggest risk of causing  significant issues if not addressed quickly
3. Internal data such as maintenance logs, audit reports and crew observations, showing how safe your vessel is overall
4. Automatic Identification Systems (AIS): Providing real-time ship location, course, and speed data.
5. Weather forecasts: Meteorological data on wind, waves, and atmospheric conditions.
6. Sensor data: Information from onboard sensors about machinery health, fuel consumption, and environmental conditions.
7. Historical voyage data: Past ship movements, weather patterns, and accident records.

How does maritime predictive modeling improve marine risk management? 

Through maritime predictive modelling you can find, prevent and predict risks.

• Identify issues early through maintenance data highlights potential failures before they happen.
• This allows preventive action to stop recurring issues, and by analyzing all data, you can address the root causes.
• Most importantly, by building up comprehensive data and trends, HiLo’s maritime predictive modelling tools predict future risks. You can anticipate and mitigate potential issues before they emerge.

This all leads to:

• Enhanced safety: By anticipating potential hazards like storms or equipment failure, crews can take preventive measures, reducing accidents and injuries.
• Optimized routes: Knowing weather patterns and currents allows for more efficient routes, saving time and fuel.
• Reduced maintenance costs: Predictive maintenance based on sensor data helps identify and address issues before they become major problems.
• Lower insurance premiums: A strong risk management plan with predictive modelling can demonstrate a safer operation, leading to lower insurance costs.

How accurate are the predictions made through maritime predictive modelling?

The accuracy of maritime predictive modelling depends on the quantity of data used, the chosen modelling techniques, the specific aspect being predicted, and the quality of the analysis.

At HiLo, we have the partners, technology and know-how to optimize the reliability of our predictions:

• Extensive, high-quality data: Our models are built on a vast internal real-world maritime dataset from over 2,500 ships
• Rigorous analysis: Our maritime predictive modelling uses statistical analysis techniques from LR Energy Consulting, a world leader in marine risk management.
• Expert validation: These models undergo rigorous peer review by data science and maritime engineering specialists at Imperial College London and The Alan Turing Institute

Combined, these factors contribute to HiLo’s predictive models achieving over 98% accuracy.

It’s important to remember that no model is perfect, and unforeseen circumstances can always arise. However, HiLo’s commitment to data quality, rigorous analysis, and expert validation ensures our models provide the most accurate and reliable predictions possible in the maritime industry.

How can HiLo improve your marine risk management? 

HiLo’s maritime predictive modelling is a powerful force that is revolutionising marine risk management. By leveraging our data and advanced algorithms, shipping companies can make data-driven decisions to improve safety, efficiency, and profitability.

HiLo’s suite of tools and services use maritime predictive modelling to deliver improved marine risk management quickly, easily and efficiently. They can:

• Simplify marine risk assessment processes
• Improve crew safety awareness
• Ensure you are fully compliant with regulations
• Find your biggest risks
• Show you how to resolve issues before they cause catastrophes

Crucially, HiLo’s tools can manage, organise and analyse vast amounts of data through:

• Easy data processing: Drag and drop various data formats for easy upload and standardisation
• Advanced analytics: Pinpoint analyses data from 2,500+ vessels, uncovering valuable insights.
• Tailored solutions to address specific risks on your fleet

This ensures you can always see the latest safety trends relevant to your fleet, and how to address them.

Why should you choose HiLo for marine risk management?

HiLo’s suite of tools and services help shipping companies to implement robust marine risk management and improve both safety and operational efficiency.

Our experts analyse your existing data, risk assessments, and processes, painting a clear picture of where vulnerabilities lie.  As a result HiLo customers have saved over $130 million in the past year by avoiding incidents, and we have prevented over 2000 incidents across the fleet.

Don’t let data hold you back. Contact HiLo today to learn more about how we can help you take your marine risk management to the next level.